EsteBot
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A live demo on a made-up athlete, rebuilt every day. Every number comes from EsteBot's own algorithms, never an AI guess.
Looking back · Tue 24 Nov 2026
How should you train today?
Held by a safety rule: back from a near-idle stretch.
Training loadcontextwatch
last 7 days averaged 0 exercise min a day vs 4 over the last 4 weeks (0.00×): a light week, build back up rather than going all out
Effort (RPE)contextno data
not enough sessions with RPE yet
Sleepvotesno data
HRV & resting HRvotesno data
How you feelcontextno data
nothing in your notes for today or yesterday
Nutritioncontextno data
under 2 complete days logged in the last 4
Weight-loss pacecontextno data
not enough weigh-ins for a 4-week comparison
i
Only areas with a record vote: an area votes once your sessions on its flagged days have gone worse than on its clear days (see Is the call working?). The rest are shown as context. Take it easy with one voting area in strain or two to watch, rest with two in strain. Going hard needs a reason that has itself gone with better sessions, never just nothing flagged. A safety rule (a health note, or coming back from a near-idle stretch) makes it a take-it-easy day whatever the record says. The score sits inside the call's band (rest 0–24, take it easy 25–49, as planned 50–74, go hard 75–100), higher the more areas are clear.
Today's session
i
Next in your push → pull → legs rotation after pull on Tue 27 Oct. Exercises from your last Legs A (Tue 20 Oct); each target comes from the last time you did that exercise.
One rule for every exercise, applied to its last session. Strength work (top set of 5 or fewer): RPE 8 or under adds load, 8.5–9 adds a rep. Accessories: add a rep up to 12 (15 for calves, laterals, shrugs, face pulls, leg extensions, flyes), then add load and drop to the bottom of the range. Bodyweight: beat the last total reps by 1–2. Any top set at RPE 9.5+: hold the load and make it cleaner. No RPE logged: repeat it. A hold day repeats every load; a sore back drops the spine-loading lifts.
| Exercise | Today | Why | Last time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barbell Squat | 250 × 5 add load |
top set 240 × 5 at RPE 6.5 | 240 × 5, 240 × 5, 240 × 5 · Tue 20 Oct |
| Romanian Deadlift | 220 × 9 add a rep |
top set 220 × 8 at RPE 9 | 220 × 9, 220 × 8, 220 × 8 · Tue 20 Oct |
| Leg Press | 410 × 9 add a rep |
top set 410 × 8 at RPE 9 | 410 × 9, 410 × 8, 410 × 8 · Tue 20 Oct |
| Seated Leg Curl | 130 × 9 add a rep |
top set 130 × 8 at RPE 9 | 130 × 9, 130 × 9, 130 × 8 · Tue 20 Oct |
| Standing Calf Raise | 225 × 13 add a rep |
top set 225 × 12 at RPE 9 | 225 × 13, 225 × 13, 225 × 12 · Tue 20 Oct |
Recovery
HRV – · resting HR – · slept – h
Recovery
Overnight HRV (ms)
Resting heart rate (bpm)
Sleep (hours asleep)
Load ratio (7-day vs 28-day)
Spinal load by day type, from your own sessions:
push 0.62 · pull 1.25 · legs 1.32 (0–3).i
Training calendar
September 2026
October 2026
November 2026
i
Hover a day for its sessions; click to open the page as of that day.
Body weight
– lb · -7.70 lb a week
Body weight
-7.70 lb a week
| Average this week vs last week | not enough weigh-ins to compare (0 and 0) | ||
| Average last 4 weeks vs the 4 before | not enough weigh-ins to compare (3 and 27) | ||
i
The goal date is a straight line at today's pace. Loss usually slows, so it's the pace you're on, not a promise.
The weekly rate is a line fitted through the last 4 weeks of weigh-ins; the headline is the 14-day average, since one morning swings ±1.5 lb on water.
Planned pace: losing 0.5–1.0% of body weight a week (estebot.toml). A single week moves 2–3 lb on water and glycogen alone, so the 4-week line is the one to act on.
Goal: 175 lb
No weigh-ins in the last 14 days, so there is no trend to forecast from.
Strength
Best estimated 1RM, last 8 weeks
Strength
No weigh-ins in the last 14 days, so there is no body weight to compare against.
Nutrition
· last 14 complete days
Nutrition
Running low means under 90% of the reference intake, from food and supplements; near an upper limit means 50% of it or more. kcal/day over 0 complete days. Logged = Apple's burn (active + resting) minus Cronometer intake.
Measured = what the 4-week weight trend implies (lb/week × 3,500 ÷ 7).
For reference, 1.2–1.6 g per kg (0.54–0.73 g/lb) is the range usually cited for keeping muscle while losing weight. Reference: US Dietary Reference Intakes and upper limits, men 31–50.
Food counts only complete days where at least 80% of the day's calories came from foods that report the nutrient.
Supplements: Vitamin D3, Magnesium glycinate, Fish oil, every day, from supplements.toml.
Not enough food data to judge: Vitamin A, Vitamin C, Vitamin D, Vitamin E, Vitamin K, B1 (Thiamine), B2 (Riboflavin), B3 (Niacin), B5 (Pantothenic Acid), B6 (Pyridoxine), B12 (Cobalamin), Folate, Calcium, Copper, Iron, Magnesium, Manganese, Phosphorus, Potassium, Selenium, Zinc, Fiber.
Estimated from food logs and labels, not a blood test.i
Running low · last 28 days
No gaps on the days with enough data.
Predictions
3 open
Predictions
| Prediction | Resolves | So far | Target | Data logged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P-001 The cut keeps a pace of 1 to 2 lb a week until it ends
OLS over 157 weigh-ins, 2026-05-01 to 2026-11-24
|
Tue 29 Dec 35 days |
-0.57 lb/week
outside
|
-2.0 to -1.0 lb/week | behind
weigh-ins: 157 of 181, 1 excused; longest gap 25 (max 7) |
| P-002 Squat, bench, deadlift and press stay within 5% of their pre-cut best
interim: 2025-11-28 to 2026-10-30 vs 2025-10-31 to 2025-11-27; Bench Press +5.2%, Deadlift +6.6%, Military Press +4.1%, Squat +8.0%
|
Tue 29 Dec 35 days |
+5.9 %
inside
|
not below -5.0 % | – |
| P-003 HRV ends the cut more than one SD above where it started
30-day mean to 2026-11-24 vs 2025-10-31 to 2025-11-27
|
Tue 29 Dec 35 days |
52.7 ms (+10.7)
inside
|
more than 46.6 ms (baseline 42.0 + 1 SD 4.6) | on track
complete food logs: 285 of 317, 6 excused |
i
Interim progress only. Each prediction resolves in ledger.md by its criterion as written, including the judgement calls a number can't make.
Is the call working?
2 of 7 areas vote · 231 sessions graded
Is the call working?
Each session is graded on the share of its targets met, against the sessions within 45 days of it. Points are the difference between days an area was flagged and days it was clear.
| Area | Flagged / clear days | Flagged vs clear | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Training load | 171 / 60 | +8 pts (-1 to +17) | no effect seen |
| Effort (RPE) | 8 / 218 | – | not enough data yet |
| Sleep | 71 / 160 | -30 pts (-38 to -22) | votes |
| HRV & resting HR | 40 / 188 | -20 pts (-31 to -9) | votes |
| How you feel | 21 / 39 | +18 pts (+5 to +31) | goes with better days |
| Nutrition | 4 / 226 | – | not enough data yet |
| Weight-loss pace | 0 / 213 | – | not enough data yet |
| Reason to go hard: check-in | 21 / 9 | – | not enough data yet |
| Reason to go hard: last session | 55 / 174 | +16 pts (+7 to +24) | earns going hard |
Targets met after each call
| Call | Recorded calls | Under today's rules, all history |
|---|---|---|
| Go hard | – | 76% (43) |
| Go as planned | – | 60% (143) |
| Take it easy | – | 49% (42) |
| Rest day | – | 58% (3) |
i
The call is graded against what happened after it. Recorded calls are the calls as they were made each morning; they are the real test, and they start empty. Under today's rules replays every past session through the current votes; it was fitted on the same sessions, so it flatters the rule. If go-hard and take-it-easy days don't end up apart, the call isn't earning its place.
Training load
Last 7 days at 0.00× your 4-week norm
Training load
Exercise minutes
Hard sets
Tonnage, thousand lb
i
Exercise minutes are Apple's, from all activity. Hard sets are sets at RPE 7 or more, or every working set where no RPE was logged. Tonnage is logged weight × reps; pull-ups add sets, not pounds.
Load ratio is exercise minutes a day over the last 7 days divided by the same over the last 4 weeks, through yesterday. 1.0 is a normal week. Over 1.3 is a sharp jump and over 1.5 is where injury risk climbs; under 0.8 is a light week, flagged because a big session straight after one is the classic way to get hurt.