EsteBot
Sign inLooking back · Tue 15 Sep 2026
How should you train today?
Held back by sleep and how you feel.
Training loadgood
this week's load is 0.86× your 4-week average; days varied enough (monotony 1.3)
Effort (RPE)good
sessions felt RPE 8.5 this week vs 8.4 before
Sleepwatch
5.9 h a night lately vs 7.0 h usual; 6.3 h last night
HRV & resting HRgood
HRV 41 this week vs 46 usual; resting HR 62 this week vs 60 usual
How you feelwatch
energy 1/3 yesterday
Nutritiongood
eating 2,556 kcal a day vs ~2,815 to maintain; protein 169 g a day vs 150 g target
Weight-loss pacegood
losing 0.67% of body weight a week
The call counts these: rest when two or more areas show strain, take it easy with one strain or two to watch, go all out only when everything is good. No single signal decides the day. The score sits inside the call's band (rest 0–24, take it easy 25–49, normal 50–74, all out 75–100), higher the more areas are clear.
Today's session
Next in your push → pull → legs rotation after legs on Sat 12 Sep. Exercises from your last Push A (Fri 4 Sep); each target comes from the last time you did that exercise.
| Exercise | Today | Why | Last time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barbell Bench Press | 190 × 6 add a rep |
top set 190 × 5 at RPE 9 | 190 × 5, 190 × 5, 190 × 5 · Fri 4 Sep |
| Dumbbell Incline Bench Press | 65 × 9 add a rep |
top set 65 × 8 at RPE 9 | 65 × 9, 65 × 9, 65 × 8 · Fri 4 Sep |
| Cable Tricep Pushdown | 75 × 9 add a rep |
top set 75 × 8 at RPE 9 | 75 × 8, 75 × 8, 75 × 8 · Fri 4 Sep |
| Dumbbell Lateral Raise | 30 × 15 add a rep |
top set 30 × 14 at RPE 8 | 30 × 14, 30 × 14, 30 × 14 · Wed 9 Sep |
One rule for every exercise, applied to its last session. Strength work (top set of 5 or fewer): RPE 8 or under adds load, 8.5–9 adds a rep. Accessories: add a rep up to 12 (15 for calves, laterals, shrugs, face pulls, leg extensions, flyes), then add load and drop to the bottom of the range. Bodyweight: beat the last total reps by 1–2. Any top set at RPE 9.5+: hold the load and make it cleaner. No RPE logged: repeat it. A take-it-easy verdict holds every load; a sore back drops the spine-loading lifts.
Recovery
From your notes, Mon 14 Sep: energy 1/3 — “wiped out, nothing stays down”
Overnight HRV (ms)
Resting heart rate (bpm)
Sleep (hours asleep)
Load ratio (7-day vs 28-day)
Spinal load by day type, from your own sessions: push 0.62 · pull 1.25 · legs 1.32 (0–3).
Training calendar
July 2026
August 2026
September 2026
Hover a day for its sessions; click to open the page as of that day.
Body weight
-1.60 lb/week, line fitted through the last 4 weeks of weigh-ins (0.85% of body weight)
| Average this week vs last week | -1.8 lb | 0.97%/wk | On pace |
| Average last 4 weeks vs the 4 before | -5.0 lb (-1.26/wk) | 0.67%/wk | On pace |
Planned pace: losing 0.5–1.0% of body weight a week (estebot.toml). Loss is speeding up: this week is well over the 4-week pace. A single week moves 2–3 lb on water and glycogen alone, so the 4-week line is the one to act on.
Goal: 175 lb
9 Nov 2026 at the current pace — 12.6 lb to go from a 14-day trend of 187.6, about 8 weeks. A straight line: weight loss usually slows, so treat it as the pace you are on, not a promise.
Strength standards — best estimated 1RM, last 8 weeks
| Lift | e1RM | × body weight | Level | Next level at | At 175 lb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Squat | 298 lb | 1.59 | Intermediate | 370 lb | Intermediate |
| Bench press | 228 lb | 1.21 | Intermediate | 278 lb | Intermediate |
| Deadlift | 368 lb | 1.96 | Intermediate | 463 lb | Intermediate |
| Overhead press | 140 lb | 0.75 | Intermediate | 185 lb | Intermediate |
Squat + bench + deadlift: 892 lb, DOTS 270 (280 at 175 lb with the same lifts).
Levels use common 1RM-to-body-weight bands, scaled to your 188 lb 14-day average by body weight2/3, because a plain ratio underrates heavier lifters. e1RM comes from your best set (Epley), so lifts trained in sets of 3–5 read a little high or low against a tested single. The bands are a rough guide, not a federation standard. DOTS compares totals across body weights: roughly 300–350 is a good recreational lifter, about 400 national level, 500+ world class.
Nutrition — last 14 days marked complete
kcal/day over 11 complete days. Logged = Apple's burn (active + resting) minus Cronometer intake. Measured = what the 4-week weight trend implies (lb/week × 3,500 ÷ 7). They differ by 526 kcal/day. Protein target: 0.8 g per lb of body weight = 150 g/day at the 14-day trend (estebot.toml); you're averaging 166 g, 111% of it. For reference, 1.2–1.6 g per kg (0.54–0.73 g/lb) is the range usually cited for keeping muscle while losing weight.
Micronutrients under 90% of the reference intake — food + supplements, last 28 days
| Nutrient | Food | + Supplements | Total | Of reference | Foods that close it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitamin E | 7.6 | – | 7.6 mg | 51% | sunflower seeds, almonds, peanut butter, avocado |
| Fiber | 28 | – | 28 g | 73% | beans and lentils, oats, berries, chia seeds, vegetables |
| Potassium | 2,757 | – | 2,757 mg | 81% | potatoes, beans and lentils, bananas, yogurt, spinach |
Close to an upper limit (50% or more)
| Nutrient | Counted | Upper limit | Of limit | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnesium | 200 mg | 350 mg | 57% | supplements only: the limit applies to supplemental intake |
| Vitamin D | 2,201 IU | 4,000 IU | 55% | food + supplements. Food alone is about 230 IU a day; the 2,000 IU capsule is most of it. |
Reference: US Dietary Reference Intakes and upper limits, men 31–50. Food counts only complete days where at least 80% of the day's calories came from foods that report the nutrient. Supplements: Vitamin D3, Magnesium glycinate, Fish oil, every day, from supplements.toml. Food-log and label arithmetic, not a blood test.
Predictions
| Prediction | Resolves | So far | Target | Data logged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P-001 The cut keeps a pace of 1 to 2 lb a week until it ends
OLS over 37 weigh-ins, 2026-08-01 to 2026-09-15
|
Mon 28 Dec 104 days |
-1.36 lb/week
inside
|
-2.0 to -1.0 lb/week | on track
weigh-ins: 37 of 111; longest gap 2 (max 7) |
| P-002 Squat, bench, deadlift and press stay within 5% of their pre-cut best
interim: 2026-05-31 to 2026-09-15 vs 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-30; Bench Press +5.4%, Deadlift +6.8%, Military Press +5.6%, Squat +4.0%
|
Mon 28 Dec 104 days |
+5.5 %
inside
|
not below -5.0 % | – |
| P-003 HRV ends the cut more than one SD above where it started
30-day mean to 2026-09-15 vs 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-30
|
Mon 28 Dec 104 days |
45.3 ms (+4.1)
outside
|
more than 47.4 ms (baseline 41.2 + 1 SD 6.3) | on track
complete food logs: 89 of 169, 6 excused |
Interim progress only. Each prediction resolves in ledger.md by its criterion as written, including the judgement calls a number can't make.