this week's load is 0.84× your 4-week average; days varied enough (monotony 2.0)
Effort (RPE)good
sessions felt RPE 8.1 this week vs 8.4 before
Sleepgood
6.9 h last night; 7.3 h a night lately vs 6.8 h usual
HRV & resting HRgood
HRV 48 this week vs 44 usual; resting HR 60 this week vs 61 usual
How you feelwatch
energy 1/3 yesterday
Nutritiongood
eating 1,923 kcal a day vs ~2,423 to maintain; protein 162 g a day vs 157 g target
Weight-loss pacegood
losing 0.70% of body weight a week
The call counts these: rest when two or more areas show strain, take it easy with one strain or two to watch, go all out only when everything is good. No single signal decides the day.
The score sits inside the call's band (rest 0–24, take it easy 25–49, normal 50–74, all out 75–100), higher the more areas are clear.
Today's session
Legs B · Barbell Front Squat
Next in your push → pull → legs rotation after pull on Wed 5 Aug.
Exercises from your last Legs B (Tue 28 Jul); each target comes from the last time you did that exercise.
Exercise
Today
Why
Last time
Barbell Front Squat
195 × 5
add load
top set 185 × 5 at RPE 7
185 × 5, 185 × 5, 185 × 5 · Tue 28 Jul
Barbell Hip Thrust
260 × 8
add a rep
top set 260 × 7 at RPE 9
260 × 9, 260 × 8, 260 × 7 · Tue 28 Jul
Machine Leg Extension
140 × 14
add a rep
top set 140 × 13 at RPE 7
140 × 13, 140 × 13, 140 × 13 · Tue 28 Jul
Seated Calf Raise
155 × 14
add a rep
top set 155 × 13 at RPE 9
155 × 13, 155 × 13, 155 × 13 · Tue 28 Jul
One rule for every exercise, applied to its last session. Strength work (top set of 5 or fewer): RPE 8 or under adds load, 8.5–9 adds a rep. Accessories: add a rep up to 12 (15 for calves, laterals, shrugs, face pulls, leg extensions, flyes), then add load and drop to the bottom of the range. Bodyweight: beat the last total reps by 1–2. Any top set at RPE 9.5+: hold the load and make it cleaner. No RPE logged: repeat it. A take-it-easy verdict holds every load; a sore back drops the spine-loading lifts.
Recovery
HRV 7-day
48 / 44
Resting HR
60
Sleep
6.9h
Load ratio
0.84
Days since rest
0 · rest Thu 6 Aug · 2 before today
From your notes, Wed 5 Aug:
energy 1/3 — “legs heavy and low energy, cut the last set”
Overnight HRV (ms)
Resting heart rate (bpm)
Sleep (hours asleep)
Load ratio (7-day vs 28-day)
Spinal load by day type, from your own sessions:
push 0.62 · pull 1.25 · legs 1.33 (0–3).
Training calendar
Training: lifting 5+ sets, or any workout but a walkRest-day movement: a walk, nothing elseRestSick or injured, from your notes or check-in
Hover a day for its sessions; click to open the page as of that day.
Body weight
196.0 lb14-day average · this morning 194.8 -0.78 lb/week, line fitted through the last 4 weeks of weigh-ins (0.40% of body weight)
Average this week vs last week
not enough weigh-ins to compare (4 and 3)
Average last 4 weeks vs the 4 before
-5.5 lb (-1.37/wk)
0.70%/wk
On pace
Planned pace: losing 0.5–1.0% of body weight a week (estebot.toml).
A single week moves 2–3 lb on water and glycogen alone, so the 4-week line is the one to act on.
Goal: 175 lb
9 Feb 2027 at the current pace —
21.0 lb to go from a 14-day trend of 196.0,
about 27 weeks. A straight line: weight loss usually slows, so treat it as the pace you are on, not a promise.
14-day trendmorning weigh-in
Strength standards — best estimated 1RM, last 8 weeks
Lift
e1RM
× body weight
Level
Next level at
At 175 lb
Squat
303 lb
1.55
Intermediate
381 lb
Intermediate
Bench press
228 lb
1.16
Intermediate
286 lb
Intermediate
Deadlift
368 lb
1.88
Intermediate
476 lb
Intermediate
Overhead press
142 lb
0.72
Novice
143 lb
Intermediate
Squat + bench + deadlift: 898 lb, DOTS 265 (282 at 175 lb with the same lifts).
Levels use common 1RM-to-body-weight bands, scaled to your 196 lb 14-day average by body weight2/3, because a plain ratio underrates heavier lifters.
e1RM comes from your best set (Epley), so lifts trained in sets of 3–5 read a little high or low against a tested single. The bands are a rough guide, not a federation standard.
DOTS compares totals across body weights: roughly 300–350 is a good recreational lifter, about 400 national level, 500+ world class.
Nutrition — last 14 days marked complete
Calories in
2,129
Deficit, logged
222
Deficit, measured
392
Protein / day
163 g / 157 target
kcal/day over 11 complete days. Logged = Apple's burn (active + resting) minus Cronometer intake.
Measured = what the 4-week weight trend implies (lb/week × 3,500 ÷ 7).
They differ by 169 kcal/day.
Protein target: 0.8 g per lb of body weight = 157 g/day at the 14-day trend (estebot.toml); you're averaging 163 g, 104% of it.
For reference, 1.2–1.6 g per kg (0.54–0.73 g/lb) is the range usually cited for keeping muscle while losing weight.
Micronutrients under 90% of the reference intake — food + supplements, last 28 days
Nutrient
Food
+ Supplements
Total
Of reference
Foods that close it
Vitamin E
8.5
–
8.5 mg
57%
sunflower seeds, almonds, peanut butter, avocado
Fiber
28
–
28 g
73%
beans and lentils, oats, berries, chia seeds, vegetables
Potassium
2,732
–
2,732 mg
80%
potatoes, beans and lentils, bananas, yogurt, spinach
Close to an upper limit (50% or more)
Nutrient
Counted
Upper limit
Of limit
Note
Magnesium
200 mg
350 mg
57%
supplements only: the limit applies to supplemental intake
Vitamin D
2,202 IU
4,000 IU
55%
food + supplements. Food alone is about 230 IU a day; the 2,000 IU capsule is most of it.
Reference: US Dietary Reference Intakes and upper limits, men 31–50.
Food counts only complete days where at least 80% of the day's calories came from foods that report the nutrient.
Supplements: Vitamin D3, Magnesium glycinate, Fish oil, every day, from supplements.toml.
Food-log and label arithmetic, not a blood test.
Predictions
Prediction
Resolves
So far
Target
Data logged
P-001 The cut keeps a pace of 1 to 2 lb a week until it ends
OLS over 4 weigh-ins, 2026-08-01 to 2026-08-06
Mon 28 Dec
144 days
-0.38 lb/week
outside
-2.0 to -1.0 lb/week
behind
weigh-ins: 4 of 111; longest gap 1 (max 7)
P-002 Squat, bench, deadlift and press stay within 5% of their pre-cut best
interim: 2026-05-31 to 2026-08-06 vs 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-30; Bench Press +5.4%, Deadlift +6.8%, Military Press +5.6%, Squat +4.0%
Mon 28 Dec
144 days
+5.5 %
inside
not below -5.0 %
–
P-003 HRV ends the cut more than one SD above where it started
30-day mean to 2026-08-06 vs 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-30
Mon 28 Dec
144 days
44.4 ms (+3.2)
outside
more than 47.4 ms (baseline 41.2 + 1 SD 6.3)
on track
complete food logs: 54 of 169, 4 excused
Interim progress only. Each prediction resolves in ledger.md by its criterion as written, including the judgement calls a number can't make.
Training load — 8 weeks
Exercise minutes (Apple, all activity)
Hard sets (RPE 7+, or every working set where no RPE was logged)