Held back by
training load, sleep and how you feel.
Training loadstrain
days too alike this week, no lighter one (monotony 2.7); this week's load is 1.15× your 4-week average
Effort (RPE)good
sessions felt RPE 8.5 this week vs 8.4 before
Sleepwatch
5.0 h last night; 6.8 h a night lately vs 7.0 h usual
HRV & resting HRgood
HRV 44 this week vs 46 usual; resting HR 60 this week vs 60 usual
How you feelstrain
energy 0/3 today
Nutritiongood
eating 2,183 kcal a day vs ~2,785 to maintain; protein 167 g a day vs 151 g target
Weight-loss pacegood
losing 0.65% of body weight a week
The call counts these: rest when two or more areas show strain, take it easy with one strain or two to watch, go all out only when everything is good. No single signal decides the day.
The score sits inside the call's band (rest 0–24, take it easy 25–49, normal 50–74, all out 75–100), higher the more areas are clear.
Today's session, if you train
Push A · Barbell Bench Press
Next in your push → pull → legs rotation after legs on Sat 12 Sep.
Exercises from your last Push A (Fri 4 Sep); each target comes from the last time you did that exercise.
Rest day. The verdict above says rest; this is what the next session looks like when you do train.
Exercise
Today
Why
Last time
Barbell Bench Press
190 × 6
add a rep
top set 190 × 5 at RPE 9
190 × 5, 190 × 5, 190 × 5 · Fri 4 Sep
Dumbbell Incline Bench Press
65 × 9
add a rep
top set 65 × 8 at RPE 9
65 × 9, 65 × 9, 65 × 8 · Fri 4 Sep
Cable Tricep Pushdown
75 × 9
add a rep
top set 75 × 8 at RPE 9
75 × 8, 75 × 8, 75 × 8 · Fri 4 Sep
Dumbbell Lateral Raise
30 × 15
add a rep
top set 30 × 14 at RPE 8
30 × 14, 30 × 14, 30 × 14 · Wed 9 Sep
One rule for every exercise, applied to its last session. Strength work (top set of 5 or fewer): RPE 8 or under adds load, 8.5–9 adds a rep. Accessories: add a rep up to 12 (15 for calves, laterals, shrugs, face pulls, leg extensions, flyes), then add load and drop to the bottom of the range. Bodyweight: beat the last total reps by 1–2. Any top set at RPE 9.5+: hold the load and make it cleaner. No RPE logged: repeat it. A take-it-easy verdict holds every load; a sore back drops the spine-loading lifts.
Recovery
HRV 7-day
44 / 46
Resting HR
60
Sleep
5.0h
Load ratio
1.15
Days since rest
0 · rest Sun 13 Sep · 2 before today
From your notes:
energy 0/3 — “stomach bug, sick for two days, barely ate wiped out, nothing stays down”
Overnight HRV (ms)
Resting heart rate (bpm)
Sleep (hours asleep)
Load ratio (7-day vs 28-day)
Spinal load by day type, from your own sessions:
push 0.62 · pull 1.25 · legs 1.32 (0–3).
Training calendar
Training: lifting 5+ sets, or any workout but a walkRest-day movement: a walk, nothing elseRestSick or injured, from your notes or check-in
Hover a day for its sessions; click to open the page as of that day.
Body weight
188.3 lb14-day average · this morning 186.7 -1.53 lb/week, line fitted through the last 4 weeks of weigh-ins (0.81% of body weight)
Average this week vs last week
-1.8 lb
0.97%/wk
On pace
Average last 4 weeks vs the 4 before
-4.9 lb (-1.23/wk)
0.65%/wk
On pace
Planned pace: losing 0.5–1.0% of body weight a week (estebot.toml).
Loss is speeding up: this week is well over the 4-week pace.
A single week moves 2–3 lb on water and glycogen alone, so the 4-week line is the one to act on.
Goal: 175 lb
13 Nov 2026 at the current pace —
13.3 lb to go from a 14-day trend of 188.3,
about 9 weeks. A straight line: weight loss usually slows, so treat it as the pace you are on, not a promise.
14-day trendmorning weigh-in
Strength standards — best estimated 1RM, last 8 weeks
Lift
e1RM
× body weight
Level
Next level at
At 175 lb
Squat
298 lb
1.58
Intermediate
371 lb
Intermediate
Bench press
228 lb
1.21
Intermediate
278 lb
Intermediate
Deadlift
368 lb
1.95
Intermediate
464 lb
Intermediate
Overhead press
142 lb
0.75
Intermediate
185 lb
Intermediate
Squat + bench + deadlift: 892 lb, DOTS 269 (280 at 175 lb with the same lifts).
Levels use common 1RM-to-body-weight bands, scaled to your 188 lb 14-day average by body weight2/3, because a plain ratio underrates heavier lifters.
e1RM comes from your best set (Epley), so lifts trained in sets of 3–5 read a little high or low against a tested single. The bands are a rough guide, not a federation standard.
DOTS compares totals across body weights: roughly 300–350 is a good recreational lifter, about 400 national level, 500+ world class.
Nutrition — last 14 days marked complete
Calories in
2,070
Deficit, logged
307
Deficit, measured
763
Protein / day
166 g / 151 target
kcal/day over 12 complete days. Logged = Apple's burn (active + resting) minus Cronometer intake.
Measured = what the 4-week weight trend implies (lb/week × 3,500 ÷ 7).
They differ by 456 kcal/day.
Protein target: 0.8 g per lb of body weight = 151 g/day at the 14-day trend (estebot.toml); you're averaging 166 g, 110% of it.
For reference, 1.2–1.6 g per kg (0.54–0.73 g/lb) is the range usually cited for keeping muscle while losing weight.
Micronutrients under 90% of the reference intake — food + supplements, last 28 days
Nutrient
Food
+ Supplements
Total
Of reference
Foods that close it
Vitamin E
7.8
–
7.8 mg
52%
sunflower seeds, almonds, peanut butter, avocado
Fiber
27
–
27 g
72%
beans and lentils, oats, berries, chia seeds, vegetables
Potassium
2,735
–
2,735 mg
80%
potatoes, beans and lentils, bananas, yogurt, spinach
Close to an upper limit (50% or more)
Nutrient
Counted
Upper limit
Of limit
Note
Magnesium
200 mg
350 mg
57%
supplements only: the limit applies to supplemental intake
Vitamin D
2,197 IU
4,000 IU
55%
food + supplements. Food alone is about 230 IU a day; the 2,000 IU capsule is most of it.
Reference: US Dietary Reference Intakes and upper limits, men 31–50.
Food counts only complete days where at least 80% of the day's calories came from foods that report the nutrient.
Supplements: Vitamin D3, Magnesium glycinate, Fish oil, every day, from supplements.toml.
Food-log and label arithmetic, not a blood test.
Predictions
Prediction
Resolves
So far
Target
Data logged
P-001 The cut keeps a pace of 1 to 2 lb a week until it ends
OLS over 35 weigh-ins, 2026-08-01 to 2026-09-13
Mon 28 Dec
106 days
-1.31 lb/week
inside
-2.0 to -1.0 lb/week
on track
weigh-ins: 35 of 111; longest gap 2 (max 7)
P-002 Squat, bench, deadlift and press stay within 5% of their pre-cut best
interim: 2026-05-31 to 2026-09-13 vs 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-30; Bench Press +5.4%, Deadlift +6.8%, Military Press +5.6%, Squat +4.0%
Mon 28 Dec
106 days
+5.5 %
inside
not below -5.0 %
–
P-003 HRV ends the cut more than one SD above where it started
30-day mean to 2026-09-13 vs 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-30
Mon 28 Dec
106 days
45.8 ms (+4.7)
outside
more than 47.4 ms (baseline 41.2 + 1 SD 6.3)
on track
complete food logs: 88 of 169, 5 excused
Interim progress only. Each prediction resolves in ledger.md by its criterion as written, including the judgement calls a number can't make.
Training load — 8 weeks
Exercise minutes (Apple, all activity)
Hard sets (RPE 7+, or every working set where no RPE was logged)