EsteBot

Looking back · Sat 26 Sep 2026

How should you train today?

Take it easy

Held back by training load, sleep and how you feel.

Training loadstrain

days too alike this week, no lighter one (monotony 2.6); this week's load is 1.09× your 4-week average

Effort (RPE)good

sessions felt RPE 8.4 this week vs 8.4 before

Sleepwatch

5.7 h last night; 6.5 h a night lately vs 7.1 h usual

HRV & resting HRgood

HRV 45 this week vs 45 usual; resting HR 59 this week vs 60 usual

How you feelwatch

energy 1/3 today

Nutritiongood

eating 1,966 kcal a day vs ~2,633 to maintain; protein 157 g a day vs 149 g target

Weight-loss pacegood

losing 0.68% of body weight a week

The call counts these: rest when two or more areas show strain, take it easy with one strain or two to watch, go all out only when everything is good. No single signal decides the day. The score sits inside the call's band (rest 0–24, take it easy 25–49, normal 50–74, all out 75–100), higher the more areas are clear.

Today's session

Legs A · Barbell Squat

Next in your push → pull → legs rotation after pull on Fri 25 Sep. Exercises from your last Legs A (Fri 18 Sep); each target comes from the last time you did that exercise.

Take it easy: repeat last time's loads with one set fewer, and stop each set by RPE 8.

Exercise	Today	Why	Last time
Barbell Squat	255 × 6 add a rep	top set 255 × 5 at RPE 9	255 × 5, 255 × 5, 255 × 5 · Fri 18 Sep
Romanian Deadlift	220 × 10 add a rep	top set 220 × 9 at RPE 9	220 × 10, 220 × 9, 220 × 9 · Fri 18 Sep
Leg Press	390 × 10 add a rep	top set 390 × 9 at RPE 8.5	390 × 10, 390 × 10, 390 × 9 · Fri 18 Sep
Seated Leg Curl	130 × 9 add a rep	top set 130 × 8 at RPE 9	130 × 9, 130 × 9, 130 × 8 · Fri 18 Sep
Standing Calf Raise	225 × 13 add a rep	top set 225 × 12 at RPE 8.5	225 × 13, 225 × 13, 225 × 12 · Fri 18 Sep

One rule for every exercise, applied to its last session. Strength work (top set of 5 or fewer): RPE 8 or under adds load, 8.5–9 adds a rep. Accessories: add a rep up to 12 (15 for calves, laterals, shrugs, face pulls, leg extensions, flyes), then add load and drop to the bottom of the range. Bodyweight: beat the last total reps by 1–2. Any top set at RPE 9.5+: hold the load and make it cleaner. No RPE logged: repeat it. A take-it-easy verdict holds every load; a sore back drops the spine-loading lifts.

Recovery

HRV 7-day

45 / 45

Resting HR

Sleep

5.7h

Load ratio

1.09

Days since rest

2 · rest Thu 24 Sep · 1 before today

From your notes: energy 1/3 — “legs heavy and low energy, cut the last set”

Overnight HRV (ms)

Resting heart rate (bpm)

Sleep (hours asleep)

Load ratio (7-day vs 28-day)

Spinal load by day type, from your own sessions: push 0.62 · pull 1.25 · legs 1.33 (0–3).

Training calendar

Training: lifting 5+ sets, or any workout but a walk Rest-day movement: a walk, nothing else Rest Sick or injured, from your notes or check-in

July 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

August 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

September 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Hover a day for its sessions; click to open the page as of that day.

Body weight

186.4 lb 14-day average · this morning 186.0
-1.18 lb/week, line fitted through the last 4 weeks of weigh-ins (0.63% of body weight)

Average this week vs last week	-0.1 lb	0.07%/wk	Losing less than expected
Average last 4 weeks vs the 4 before	-5.1 lb (-1.28/wk)	0.68%/wk	On pace

Planned pace: losing 0.5–1.0% of body weight a week (estebot.toml). Loss is slowing: this week is well under the 4-week pace. A single week moves 2–3 lb on water and glycogen alone, so the 4-week line is the one to act on.

Goal: 175 lb

3 Dec 2026 at the current pace — 11.4 lb to go from a 14-day trend of 186.4, about 10 weeks. A straight line: weight loss usually slows, so treat it as the pace you are on, not a promise.

14-day trend morning weigh-in

Strength standards — best estimated 1RM, last 8 weeks

Lift	e1RM	× body weight	Level	Next level at	At 175 lb
Squat	298 lb	1.60	Intermediate	368 lb	Intermediate
Bench press	228 lb	1.22	Intermediate	276 lb	Intermediate
Deadlift	368 lb	1.97	Intermediate	461 lb	Intermediate
Overhead press	146 lb	0.78	Intermediate	184 lb	Intermediate

Squat + bench + deadlift: 892 lb, DOTS 271 (280 at 175 lb with the same lifts).

Levels use common 1RM-to-body-weight bands, scaled to your 186 lb 14-day average by body weight^2/3, because a plain ratio underrates heavier lifters. e1RM comes from your best set (Epley), so lifts trained in sets of 3–5 read a little high or low against a tested single. The bands are a rough guide, not a federation standard. DOTS compares totals across body weights: roughly 300–350 is a good recreational lifter, about 400 national level, 500+ world class.

Nutrition — last 14 days marked complete

Calories in

2,107

Deficit, logged

247

Deficit, measured

591

Protein / day

160 g / 149 target

kcal/day over 11 complete days. Logged = Apple's burn (active + resting) minus Cronometer intake. Measured = what the 4-week weight trend implies (lb/week × 3,500 ÷ 7). They differ by 343 kcal/day. Protein target: 0.8 g per lb of body weight = 149 g/day at the 14-day trend (estebot.toml); you're averaging 160 g, 107% of it. For reference, 1.2–1.6 g per kg (0.54–0.73 g/lb) is the range usually cited for keeping muscle while losing weight.

Micronutrients under 90% of the reference intake — food + supplements, last 28 days

Nutrient	Food	+ Supplements	Total	Of reference	Foods that close it
Vitamin E	8.3	–	8.3 mg	55%	sunflower seeds, almonds, peanut butter, avocado
Fiber	29	–	29 g	77%	beans and lentils, oats, berries, chia seeds, vegetables
Potassium	2,930	–	2,930 mg	86%	potatoes, beans and lentils, bananas, yogurt, spinach

Close to an upper limit (50% or more)

Nutrient	Counted	Upper limit	Of limit	Note
Magnesium	200 mg	350 mg	57%	supplements only: the limit applies to supplemental intake
Vitamin D	2,200 IU	4,000 IU	55%	food + supplements. Food alone is about 230 IU a day; the 2,000 IU capsule is most of it.

Reference: US Dietary Reference Intakes and upper limits, men 31–50. Food counts only complete days where at least 80% of the day's calories came from foods that report the nutrient. Supplements: Vitamin D3, Magnesium glycinate, Fish oil, every day, from supplements.toml. Food-log and label arithmetic, not a blood test.

Predictions

Prediction	Resolves	So far	Target	Data logged
P-001 The cut keeps a pace of 1 to 2 lb a week until it ends OLS over 44 weigh-ins, 2026-08-01 to 2026-09-26	Mon 28 Dec 93 days	-1.28 lb/week inside	-2.0 to -1.0 lb/week	on track weigh-ins: 44 of 111; longest gap 2 (max 7)
P-002 Squat, bench, deadlift and press stay within 5% of their pre-cut best interim: 2026-05-31 to 2026-09-26 vs 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-30; Bench Press +5.4%, Deadlift +6.8%, Military Press +8.6%, Squat +4.0%	Mon 28 Dec 93 days	+6.1 % inside	not below -5.0 %	–
P-003 HRV ends the cut more than one SD above where it started 30-day mean to 2026-09-26 vs 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-30	Mon 28 Dec 93 days	44.9 ms (+3.8) outside	more than 47.4 ms (baseline 41.2 + 1 SD 6.3)	on track complete food logs: 99 of 169, 6 excused

Interim progress only. Each prediction resolves in ledger.md by its criterion as written, including the judgement calls a number can't make.

Training load — 8 weeks

Exercise minutes (Apple, all activity)

Hard sets (RPE 7+, or every working set where no RPE was logged)

Tonnage, thousand lb (logged weight × reps; pull-ups add sets, not pounds)

Recent context

2026-10-29 — slept well, felt good this morning

2026-10-27 — poor sleep but felt strong on bench

2026-10-25 — legs heavy and low energy, cut the last set

2026-10-23 — felt great, slept well

2026-10-20 — legs heavy and low energy, cut the last set

2026-10-17 — legs heavy and low energy, cut the last set