EsteBot

Looking back · Fri 23 Oct 2026

How should you train today?

Normal

Held back by training load.

Training loadwatch

days too alike this week, no lighter one (monotony 2.4); this week's load is 1.01× your 4-week average

Effort (RPE)good

sessions felt RPE 8.5 this week vs 7.9 before

Sleepgood

6.5 h last night; 6.9 h a night lately vs 6.7 h usual

HRV & resting HRgood

HRV 47 this week vs 47 usual; resting HR 60 this week vs 59 usual

How you feelgood

energy 3/3 today

Nutritiongood

eating 1,821 kcal a day vs ~2,770 to maintain; protein 156 g a day vs 145 g target

Weight-loss pacegood

losing 0.62% of body weight a week

The call counts these: rest when two or more areas show strain, take it easy with one strain or two to watch, go all out only when everything is good. No single signal decides the day. The score sits inside the call's band (rest 0–24, take it easy 25–49, normal 50–74, all out 75–100), higher the more areas are clear.

Today's session

Push B · Barbell Military Press

Next in your push → pull → legs rotation after legs on Wed 21 Oct. Exercises from your last Push B (Wed 14 Oct); each target comes from the last time you did that exercise.

Exercise	Today	Why	Last time
Barbell Military Press	115 × 5 add load	top set 110 × 5 at RPE 6.5	110 × 5, 110 × 5, 110 × 5 · Wed 14 Oct
Dumbbell Bench Press	75 × 8 add a rep	top set 75 × 7 at RPE 9	75 × 8, 75 × 7, 75 × 7 · Wed 14 Oct
Cable Overhead Tricep Extension	65 × 9 add a rep	top set 65 × 8 at RPE 8.5	65 × 9, 65 × 9, 65 × 8 · Wed 14 Oct
Dumbbell Lateral Raise	30 × 15 add a rep	top set 30 × 14 at RPE 8.5	30 × 15, 30 × 15, 30 × 14 · Mon 19 Oct

One rule for every exercise, applied to its last session. Strength work (top set of 5 or fewer): RPE 8 or under adds load, 8.5–9 adds a rep. Accessories: add a rep up to 12 (15 for calves, laterals, shrugs, face pulls, leg extensions, flyes), then add load and drop to the bottom of the range. Bodyweight: beat the last total reps by 1–2. Any top set at RPE 9.5+: hold the load and make it cleaner. No RPE logged: repeat it. A take-it-easy verdict holds every load; a sore back drops the spine-loading lifts.

Recovery

HRV 7-day

47 / 47

Resting HR

Sleep

6.5h

Load ratio

1.01

Days since rest

1 · rest Thu 22 Oct · 0 before today

From your notes: energy 3/3 — “felt great, slept well”

Overnight HRV (ms)

Resting heart rate (bpm)

Sleep (hours asleep)

Load ratio (7-day vs 28-day)

Spinal load by day type, from your own sessions: push 0.62 · pull 1.25 · legs 1.32 (0–3).

Training calendar

Training: lifting 5+ sets, or any workout but a walk Rest-day movement: a walk, nothing else Rest Sick or injured, from your notes or check-in

August 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

September 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

October 2026

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Hover a day for its sessions; click to open the page as of that day.

Body weight

181.6 lb 14-day average · this morning 180.4
-1.54 lb/week, line fitted through the last 4 weeks of weigh-ins (0.85% of body weight)

Average this week vs last week	-2.1 lb	1.16%/wk	Losing faster than planned
Average last 4 weeks vs the 4 before	-4.5 lb (-1.14/wk)	0.62%/wk	On pace

Planned pace: losing 0.5–1.0% of body weight a week (estebot.toml). Loss is speeding up: this week is well over the 4-week pace. A single week moves 2–3 lb on water and glycogen alone, so the 4-week line is the one to act on.

Goal: 175 lb

22 Nov 2026 at the current pace — 6.6 lb to go from a 14-day trend of 181.6, about 4 weeks. A straight line: weight loss usually slows, so treat it as the pace you are on, not a promise.

14-day trend morning weigh-in

Strength standards — best estimated 1RM, last 8 weeks

Lift	e1RM	× body weight	Level	Next level at	At 175 lb
Squat	309 lb	1.70	Intermediate	362 lb	Intermediate
Bench press	228 lb	1.25	Intermediate	272 lb	Intermediate
Deadlift	368 lb	2.02	Intermediate	453 lb	Intermediate
Overhead press	146 lb	0.80	Intermediate	181 lb	Intermediate

Squat + bench + deadlift: 904 lb, DOTS 278 (284 at 175 lb with the same lifts).

Levels use common 1RM-to-body-weight bands, scaled to your 182 lb 14-day average by body weight^2/3, because a plain ratio underrates heavier lifters. e1RM comes from your best set (Epley), so lifts trained in sets of 3–5 read a little high or low against a tested single. The bands are a rough guide, not a federation standard. DOTS compares totals across body weights: roughly 300–350 is a good recreational lifter, about 400 national level, 500+ world class.

Nutrition — last 14 days marked complete

Calories in

2,006

Deficit, logged

284

Deficit, measured

769

Protein / day

155 g / 145 target

kcal/day over 13 complete days. Logged = Apple's burn (active + resting) minus Cronometer intake. Measured = what the 4-week weight trend implies (lb/week × 3,500 ÷ 7). They differ by 485 kcal/day. Protein target: 0.8 g per lb of body weight = 145 g/day at the 14-day trend (estebot.toml); you're averaging 155 g, 107% of it. For reference, 1.2–1.6 g per kg (0.54–0.73 g/lb) is the range usually cited for keeping muscle while losing weight.

Micronutrients under 90% of the reference intake — food + supplements, last 28 days

Nutrient	Food	+ Supplements	Total	Of reference	Foods that close it
Vitamin E	7.9	–	7.9 mg	53%	sunflower seeds, almonds, peanut butter, avocado
Fiber	29	–	29 g	76%	beans and lentils, oats, berries, chia seeds, vegetables
Potassium	2,694	–	2,694 mg	79%	potatoes, beans and lentils, bananas, yogurt, spinach

Close to an upper limit (50% or more)

Nutrient	Counted	Upper limit	Of limit	Note
Magnesium	200 mg	350 mg	57%	supplements only: the limit applies to supplemental intake
Vitamin D	2,213 IU	4,000 IU	55%	food + supplements. Food alone is about 230 IU a day; the 2,000 IU capsule is most of it.

Reference: US Dietary Reference Intakes and upper limits, men 31–50. Food counts only complete days where at least 80% of the day's calories came from foods that report the nutrient. Supplements: Vitamin D3, Magnesium glycinate, Fish oil, every day, from supplements.toml. Food-log and label arithmetic, not a blood test.

Predictions

Prediction	Resolves	So far	Target	Data logged
P-001 The cut keeps a pace of 1 to 2 lb a week until it ends OLS over 66 weigh-ins, 2026-08-01 to 2026-10-23	Mon 28 Dec 66 days	-1.21 lb/week inside	-2.0 to -1.0 lb/week	on track weigh-ins: 66 of 111; longest gap 2 (max 7)
P-002 Squat, bench, deadlift and press stay within 5% of their pre-cut best interim: 2026-05-31 to 2026-10-23 vs 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-30; Bench Press +5.4%, Deadlift +6.8%, Military Press +8.6%, Squat +6.0%	Mon 28 Dec 66 days	+6.4 % inside	not below -5.0 %	–
P-003 HRV ends the cut more than one SD above where it started 30-day mean to 2026-10-23 vs 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-30	Mon 28 Dec 66 days	46.8 ms (+5.7) outside	more than 47.4 ms (baseline 41.2 + 1 SD 6.3)	on track complete food logs: 124 of 169, 6 excused

Interim progress only. Each prediction resolves in ledger.md by its criterion as written, including the judgement calls a number can't make.

Training load — 8 weeks

Exercise minutes (Apple, all activity)

Hard sets (RPE 7+, or every working set where no RPE was logged)

Tonnage, thousand lb (logged weight × reps; pull-ups add sets, not pounds)

Recent context

2026-10-29 — slept well, felt good this morning

2026-10-27 — poor sleep but felt strong on bench

2026-10-25 — legs heavy and low energy, cut the last set

2026-10-23 — felt great, slept well

2026-10-20 — legs heavy and low energy, cut the last set

2026-10-17 — legs heavy and low energy, cut the last set